Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
