A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
